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Flagship Report · Publishing January 2027

Top Risks 2027: The Africa-Asia Outlook

The ten forces most likely to shape the Africa-Asia nexus in the year ahead, analyzed through three lenses: risk, geopolitics, and culture.

By Dr. Phiwokuhle Mnyandu, Founder & President. Below are the themes under analysis. The full report, including our country watchlist and the Red Herrings we believe the consensus has wrong, will be released in January 2027.

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Themes Under Analysis

The ten risks

  1. The Minerals ReckoningProducer states push to renegotiate terms, mandate local processing, and tighten control of raw-ore exports.
  2. FOCAC 2027 and the "Small and Beautiful" TrapWhat happens when Beijing's smaller-scale approach meets the expectations of African capitals at the end of the current action plan.
  3. The Refinancing CliffA wave of debt maturities tests the patience of China, the IMF, Gulf lenders, and private creditors.
  4. Coups, Votes, and the Legitimacy CrisisElections and post-coup transitions, and juntas courting Asian and Gulf partners as Western leverage fades.
  5. The Third Pole: Gulf Capital Goes on OffenseGulf investors scale up in logistics, ports, agriculture, renewables, and minerals.
  6. Tokyo, Seoul, Delhi: The Other Asia ArrivesJapan, Korea, and India compete for influence, and Asian rivalries are imported onto the continent.
  7. AfCFTA Meets the Indo-PacificContinental integration collides with the bilateral deals that Asian powers prefer.
  8. The Culture Economy as Strategic TerrainLanguages, media, education, and AI become fields of great-power competition.
  9. Security Outsourcing 2.0Security and military cooperation diversifies beyond traditional partners.
  10. The Demographic Arbitrage Breaks DownA youth bulge meets jobless growth, with consequences for migration and political stability.

Beyond the Report

Brief your board or team on Top Risks 2027

Dr. Mnyandu is available for keynotes and executive briefings on the report's findings.

Thought Leadership & Speaking